Introduction
Thünen explains:Herring Trapped in Climate ChangeWhy herring is lacking recruitment
A Multimedia feature by Nadine Kraft, Patrick Polte, Annemarie Schütz and Christopher Zimmermann
Translation: Cornelius Hammer and Dina Führmann
Herring – Silver of the Baltic Sea
In the Western Baltic Sea, however, it is increasingly lacking recruitment. This is what we first noticed 15 years ago during our annual Rügen Herring Larvae Survey.
Since then, we have been systematically investigating the reasons of declining offspring production. By now it has become evident that the warming of the sea along the migration routes (Ref. 1), as well as the shift of the yearly successions, the so-called phenology (2), are the main reasons for the decline, caused most probably by man-made climate change.
read more about the stock development
Importance for the Coastal Fishery
Importance for the Coastal Fishery
In recent years, however, the quotas had to be reduced repeatedly, between 2017 and 2021 by 94 percent. As a consequence, the fishery in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania experiences currently its second large structural change since the German reunification.
Impact of Climate Change on Fish Stocks
The impact of climate change on the fisheries differs considerably by region. An overview:
Herring research
The Herring Fishery
The Rügen Herring Larvae Survey
The Rügen Herring Larvae Survey
The Rügen Herring Larvae Survey
Watch the interview with Dr. Patrick Polte, Herring recruitment group at the Thünen Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries.
Basic Data for Setting Catch Quotas
After 2006 the politicians have reduced the total allowable catches for herring in the Western Baltic Sea initially only hesitantly. Between 2011 and 2017 they followed the scientific recommendation strictly. Since 2018, the EU-Council of Ministers limits the catches in the southern management area to a quantity that should allow the stock to recover within a couple of years. For 2022, the EU and Norway agreed to follow the same approach in the northern management area.
Why is there less Herring Recruitment?
The Baltic Sea is too warm
The Baltic Sea is too warm
The results of the modelling identified weaker and later-in-the-year winter periods as main cause: The change in temperature explains more than 50 percent of the declining recruitment of the stock and is therefore the most important single factor. The remaining 50 percent are explained by a number of other factors (1).
Over the past 30 years the February surface temperature of the Baltic Sea was never as high as in 2020. At the same time the lowest larvae index N20 was determined.
From Spawn to Herring
As a consequence the larvae now require external food about three weeks earlier, as compared to 30 years ago. This food consists of the early stages of larvae of zooplankton crustaceans. First results of our additional studies show however, that at such early time in the year, these prey items are not yet available in sufficient abundance. While the spawning activity of herring is mainly driven by temperature, zooplankton larvae depend on the occurrence of phytoplankton and thus on the light regime. As a result, many herring larvae starve and for this reason the number of adult herring decreases further from year to year.
However, even for larvae hatching later, the warmer environment into which they are born poses a threat and causes increased mortality, for example due to cardiac arrhythmia (13).
From Spawn to Herring
Impact on the Fishery
-
The Western Baltic herring stock can
be managed sustainably, even if its recruitment remains low. About 20,000 tons could
be harvested sustainably annually from the Western Baltic Sea under the prevailing
ecological conditions. Although such a quantity is only about half of what was
caught 30 years ago, it is still ten times as much as harvested in 2021.
-
With the knowledge of the causes of
reduced productivity, it remains in our hands to improve the ecological conditions
for better herring recruitment in spite of climate change.
-
Without herring the coastal fishery
of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania faces its end. It is worth to undertake all
conceivable effort to save the fishery, for economic, cultural and even ecological
reasons.
This is how the Herring can recover
This is how the Herring can recover
- With significantly reduced fishing
pressure in all management areas the stock is capable to recover, even if its productivity
remains low. It will be possible to harvest the stock again sustainably in a
couple of years and it will then provide about half the yield of what was
harvested 30 years ago.
- The productivity of the stock can be
enhanced by reducing other stressors. Even the reduction of the nutrient load
in the water capture area of the rivers discharging into the Greifswalder
Bodden would help to increase the resilience of the stock.
Sources and figures
Sources
Sources
DOI:10.1002/lno.11042
(Thünen Institute internal funding and EU Data Collection Framework)
(2) Polte P, Gröhsler T, Kotterba P, Nordheim L von, Moll D, Santos J, Rodriguez-Tress P, Zablotski Y, Zimmermann C (2021) Reduced reproductive success of Western Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a response to warming winters. Front Mar Sci 8:589242,
DOI:10.3389/fmars.2021.589242
(Thünen Institute internal funding and EU Data Collection Framework)
(3) Cheung WWL, Reygondeau G, Frölicher TL (2016) Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5°C global warming target. Science 354 (6319): 1591-1594,
DOI: 10.1126/science.aag2331
(4) Kniebusch M, Meier HEM, Neumann T, Börgel F (2019) Temperature variability of the Baltic Sea since 1850 and attribution to atmospheric forcing variables. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 124: 4168-4187,
DOI: 10.1029/2018JC013948
(5) Oeberst R, Klenz B, Gröhsler T, Dickey-Collas M, Nash RDM, Zimmermann C (2009) When is year-class strength determined in western Baltic herring? – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1667–1672.
DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsp143
(Thünen Institute internal funding and EU Data Collection Framework)
(6) Kanstinger P, Beher J, Grenzdörffer G, Hammer C, Huebert KB, Stepputtis D, Peck M (2018) What is left? Macrophyte meadows and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) spawning sites in the Greifswalder Bodden, Baltic Sea. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 201:72-81,
DOI:10.1016/j.ecss.2016.03.004
(Project DONG Power Plant Environmental Effects Assessment)
(7) Bauer RK, Stepputtis D, Gräwe U, Zimmermann C, Hammer C (2013) Wind-induced variability in coastal larval retention areas: a case study on Western Baltic spring-spawning herring. Fisheries Oceanogr 22(5):388-399, DOI:10.1111/fog.12029
(Thünen Institute internal funding)
(8) Kotterba P, Moll D, Hammer C, Peck M, Oesterwind D, Polte P (2017) Predation on Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) eggs by the resident predator community in coastal transitional waters. Limnol Oceanogr 62(6):2616-2628, DOI:10.1002/lno.10594
Kotterba P, Kühn C, Hammer C, Polte P (2014) Predation of threespine stickleback (Gastrosteus aculeatus) on the eggs of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in a Baltic Sea lagoon. Limnol Oceanogr 59(2):578-587, DOI:10.4319/lo.2014.59.2.0578
(EU-Projects BONUS Bio-C3 and Inspire)
(9) Moll D, Kotterba P, Nordheim L von, Polte P (2018) Storm-induced Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) egg mortality in Baltic Sea inshore spawning areas. Estuaries Coasts 41(1):1-12, DOI:10.1007/s12237-017-0259-5
(EU Data Collection Framework)
(10) Nordheim L von, Kotterba P, Moll D, Polte P (2020) Lethal effect of filamentous algal blooms on Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) eggs in the Baltic Sea. Aquatic Conserv 30(7):1362-1372, DOI:10.1002/aqc.3329 (Stipend Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt)
(11) Finke A et al in prep
(Stipend Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes)
(12) Līvdane L et al in prep
(Thünen Institute internal funding and EU Data Collection Framework)
(13) Moyano M, Illing B, Polte P, Kotterba P, Zablotski Y, Gröhsler T, Hüdepohl P, Cooke SJ, Peck M (2020) Linking individual physiological indicators to the productivity of fish populations: A case study of Atlantic herring. Ecol Indic 113:106146,
DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106146
Figures and photographs
2. Silver of the Baltic Sea: ©Daniel Stepputtis/Thünen Institute
3. Herring Recruitment Index N20: ©Christopher Zimmermann/Thünen Institute
4. Stock development: ©www.fischbestaende-online.de
5. Distribution and management areas: ©Christopher Zimmermann/Thünen Institute
6. Herring fishers Gr. Zicker: ©Andrea Müller/Thünen Institute
7. Significance for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: ©Christopher Zimmermann/Thünen Institute
8. Western Baltic Sea from the ISS: Image courtesy of the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit, NASA Johnson Space Center,
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov, file STS099-751-33_3.JPG, accessed 13 Feb 2021
9. Winners and losers of climate change: after Cheung et al. 2016, redrawn and modified
10. Lofoten cutter: ©lowe99/stock.adobe.com
11. Lofoten cod fisher: ©Ulf Berglund/MSC
12. Tropical fishery: ©MSC
13. Sea bass: ©ILYA AKINSHIN/stock.adobe.com
14. Beach fishery Baltic Sea: ©Christopher Zimmermann/Thünen Institute
15. Baltic herring pairtrawl fishery: ©Lena Ganssmann/MSC
16. Herring haul: ©Christopher Zimmermann/Thünen Institute
17. Larvae net Bongo: ©Harry Strehlow/Thünen Institute
18. RHLS station grid: ©Christopher Zimmermann/Thünen Institute
19. Interview P. Polte, FFS Clupea: ©Annemarie Schütz/Thünen Institute, using video material by Annemarie Schütz/Thünen Institute and a figure by Christopher Zimmermann/Thünen Institute
20. ICES logo: ©ICES.dk
21. Herring larvae: ©Dagmar Stephan/Thünen Institute
22. Distribution map of water plants GWB 1938: Map based on species distribution reported by Seifert (1938), Subklew (1955) and Munkes (2005), cited in Kanstinger et al. 2018
23. Distribution map of water plants GWB 2009: Görres Grenzdörffer/Univ. Rostock, cited in Kanstinger et al. 2018
24. Baltic Sea storm: ©Daniel Stepputtis/Thünen Institute
25. Larval drift: ©Robert Bauer/Thünen Institute and Ulf Graewe/Leibniz IOW
26. Stickleback feeding experiments: ©Paul Kotterba/Thünen Institute
27. Egg aggregations washed ashore: ©Dorothee Moll/Thünen Institute
28. Overgrown herring spawn: ©Lena von Nordheim/Thünen Institute
29. Copepods and nauplia: ©Gesche Winkler/UQAR
30. Diatom bloom in the Baltic Sea: ©NASA Ocean Color Image Gallery (2020, August), https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/147000/147135/baltic_oli_2020228_lrg.jpg, accessed 12 Feb 2021
31. Prerow Baltic Sea coast: ©Cornelius Hammer/Thünen Institute
32. Sea surface temperature in February: ©Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie/Remote Sensing Group
33. Phenology shift: ©Christopher Zimmermann/Thünen Institute
34. Animation phenology shift: ©Annemarie Schütz, Nadine Kraft, Harry Strehlow/Thünen Institute
35. Interview Christopher Zimmermann: ©Annemarie Schütz/Thünen Institute using a figure by Christopher Zimmermann/Thünen Institute, video material by Annemarie Schütz/Thünen Institute and a photo by ©Lena Ganssmann/MSCVideo
36. Herring in a trawl: ©Annemarie Schütz/Thünen Institute
37. Herring recruitment stressors: ©Christopher Zimmermann/Thünen Institute
Climate Change and Marine Fish
Impact of Climate Change on Fish Stocks WorldwideWinners and losers
Impact of Climate Change: The North Polar Sea
Impact of Climate Change: The North Polar Sea
Impact of Climate Change: The Tropics
The impact of Climate Change will have its strongest effects in the tropics. Fish stocks move to higher latitudes without being replaced by species that can sustain even higher temperatures. In addition, people in the tropics depend on fish as a source of animal protein more than anywhere else.
Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Fisheries
Impact of Climate Change: Baltic Sea
Impact of Climate Change: Baltic Sea
Two examples: With increasing global temperatures more water evaporates, leading generally to more precipitation. In the catchment area of the Baltic more freshwater running into the Baltic Sea will therefore lower its salinity. Marine fish, such as cod or plaice, are physiologically adapted to higher salinities and will become less productive in fresher water. But climate change might also induce stronger and more frequent winds from the west during the autumn storm season. This might, as a consequence, push more salt water of North Sea origin into the Baltic Sea, inducing an increase of the salinity, which, as a result would increase the recruitment of many marine species. back
Hypotheses on the Reduction of Recruitment
Comparison of occurrence of water plants in the Greifswalder Bodden 1938 and 2009.
Are there too few Aquatic Plants?
Are the Larvae flushed out of the Bodden?
However, during the past years the storms have increased in strength and frequency, leading to the question, whether more larvae than previously are flushed out of the Bodden into the Pomeranian Bight and starve there? In an analysis we could show that the larvae were indeed moved faster and stronger within the lagoon (7) but that they are not flushed out of the Greifswalder Bodden in greater numbers. This hypothesis for the declining recruitment is therefore rejected.
Has the Number of Predators on the Spawn increased?
Remains the predatory fish, as for example the stickleback: They are small, are not fished since they are economically of little importance and consume herring spawn in great quantities. Have the sticklebacks multiplied to such an extent since the early 2000s that they have become a threat for the herring spawn? Due to the fact that there are no data on stickleback abundance in the area prior to 2006, this hypothesis can hardly be verified.
Based on our investigations, we can, however, demonstrate that the stickleback plays a much bigger role as predator on the spawn than previously assumed (8). In addition, the sticklebacks seem to consume even more herring eggs, the higher their density on water plants is.
Is Spawn washed up the Shore by Storms?
We indeed found aquatic plants in great quantities covered thickly with eggs on the shore (9). However, we can not affirm this as the single cause for declining herring recruitment since data prior to 2006 are not available.
Are increased Nutrient Loads the Cause?
The most conspicuous effect of the eutrophication is the strong growth of very small planktonic algae in the Greifswalder Bodden. This phytoplankton reduces the light penetration in greater depths, which is the reason why aquatic plants suitable as spawning surface for herring are only found in the shallow littoral zones close to the shore, where light can still reach the bottom.
Eutrophication also promotes the growth of filamentous algae and fungi. They overgrow the aquatic plants and even the large egg deposits of the herring, reducing the gas exchange of the eggs and the growth of the plants. Moreover, we could show that the overgrowing algae emit poisonous substances that inhibit the development of the herring embryos (10). One conclusion from this study is that if it was possible to stop the nutrient inflow from the Peene river into the Greifswald Bodden during the spawning season, this would have immediate positive effects by reducing the excessive growth of the algae.
Or is there too little Prey available for the Larvae?
It is therefore evident that if the herring larvae appear three weeks earlier in the Bodden, the suitable crustacean larvae are not yet available. The development of the zooplankton larvae depends on the abundance of drifting microscopic unicellular algae, the phytoplankton. The phytoplankton is not affected by the warming of the water and develops in synchrony with the increasing sunlight during springtime. The microalgae appear therefore at the usual time, whereas the herring larvae are too early and miss the zooplankton.
In another comprehensive study the abundance of zooplankton at all different developmental stages is currently analysed for the Greifswalder Bodden. First results show that considerably fewer small crustaceans occur throughout the past years (12). The underlying reasons need still be clarified though, the warmer winter most likely play a role here as well.
Conclusion: Many Factors have an Impact on the Ecosystem
For the stickleback the high spawn concentrations apparently offer new opportunities: it consumes much more herring spawn than previously. At the same time the aquatic plants are more easily torn off from the sediment and deposited at the shore by means of the increasing storms. Moreover, due to the eutrophication the algae and fungi grow practically without limit, increasing the egg mortality due to the overgrowth.
At the end of this chain of individual factors there is a loser: the herring, that is not able to adapt quickly enough to a changing environment.
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Stock Development
Development of Herring Recruitment
Development of Herring Recruitment
Recruiting year classes have been fluctuating in the past as well. However, since 2006 the stock of adult herring decreases continuously and the 2020-year class was the weakest in the 30-years-time series. back
Stock Development of the Western Baltic Spring Spawning Herring
Stock Development of the Western Baltic Spring Spawning Herring
Since the beginning of the 1990s this herring stock has decreased in size (upper left figure) and, according to the present perception, is now far too small. Since 2006 the spawning stock biomass is permanently below the reference point according to the concept of the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and at present only about half of the value of the limit reference point (Blim). Blim should be avoided by all means.
The fishing pressure was far too high since the beginning of the times series (upper right figure). It has only been reduced to less than the MSY reference point (Fmsy) from 2020.
The catches from the entire stock were reduced within the past 30 years, from 200,000 tons to less than 5,000 tons (lower left figure).
The values for recruitment (numbers of juveniles of the age group 0, lower right figure) deviate from those of the recruitment larvae index (N20), because they reflect the result of the stock assessment which includes additional information. The decreasing trend is however identical.
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Distribution and Management
Stock development of the Western Baltic Spring Spawning Herring
Stock development of the Western Baltic Spring Spawning Herring
Since the beginning of the 1990s this herring stock has decreased in size (upper left figure) and, according to the present perception, is far too small. Since 2006 the spawning stock biomass is permanently below the reference point according to the concept of the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and at present only about half of the value of the limit reference point (Blim). Blim should be avoided by all means.
The fishing pressure was far too high since the beginning of the times series (upper right figure). It has only been reduced to less than the MSY reference point (Fmsy) from 2020.
The catches from the entire stock were reduced within the past 30 years, from 200,000 tons to less than 5,000 tons (lower left figure).
The values for recruitment (numbers of juveniles of the age group 0, lower right figure) deviate from those of the recruitment larvae index (N20), because they reflect the result of the stock assessment which includes additional information. The decreasing trend is however identical.
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Distribution and Management Areas
Distribution and Management Areas
During its annual migration, the herring crosses several management areas (right figure): The western Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak, and the North Sea. Mixing with neighbouring North Sea and Central Baltic stocks occurs at the fringes of the distribution area.
Separate total allowable catches are set for each of these management areas. The fishing mortality on the stock is however determined by the total catch from all management areas. back